Alarming global-scale declines of bird numbers are occurring under the changing climate, and species belonging to alpine and Arctic tundra are particularly affected. Increased nest predation appears to be involved4, but the mechanisms linking predation to climate change remain to be shown. Here we test the prediction from food web theory that increased primary productivity (greening of tundra) in a ...

Ptarmigan are herbivorous birds that are year-round residents of alpine and arctic ecosystems — presently subjected to the most rapid climate warming on earth. Yet, compared to other bird taxa there has been little climate impact research on ptarmigan. Ptarmigan population dynamics, in particular in the sub/low-arctic, appears to be strongly influenced by complex interactions with a suite of ...

Rapid, but contrasting, changes in the extent of erect thicket-forming shrubs is presently seen in the Arctic, either resulting from a warmer climate (increasing extent) or intensified herbivory (decreasing extent). We investigated the impact of loss of willow shrubs on a bird community in arctic riparian sediment plains in northern Norway subject to varying intensities of reindeer browsing. In ...

The PREDICTS project—Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (www.predicts.org.uk)—has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity of human impacts relating to land use. We have used this evidence base to develop global and regional ...

The impact of climate change on the dynamics of populations has been well documented and is widespread. However, weather variability influences populations both directly and indirectly, and is mediated by species interactions. This complexity may impede proper climate impact assessments. Hence, predicting the consequences of climate change may require including processes that occur both with time ...

The distribution of traditional breeding dens on the Varanger Peninsula (70–71°N) in northernmost Fennoscandia indicates that this area once harboured a large Arctic fox population. Early 20th century naturalists regarded the coastal tundra of the Fennoscandian Low Arctic to be a stronghold for the species. At the start of our research in 2004, however, the local Arctic fox population was ...

Sustainable management of wildlife populations can be aided by building models that both identify current drivers of natural dynamics and provide near-term predictions of future states. We employed a Strategic Foresight Protocol (SFP) involving stakeholders to decide the purpose and structure of a dynamic state-space model for the population dynamics of the Willow Ptarmigan, a popular game species ...